2023/24 Premier League Tactical Preview: Fulham

In recent years, Fulham have found themselves yo-yo-ing between the Premier League and the Championship, but last season they broke that trend in style, finishing 10th in the topflight in 22/23.

One of the season’s surprise packages, along with the likes of Brighton and Brentford, Fulham may still face a rebuild if the reports surrounding certain key players are to be believed.

Regardless, Marco Silva deserves credit for leading Fulham to a top-half finish last campaign — making the 23/24 season Fulham’s first consecutive Premier League season since 2012/13-13/14. This tactical analysis will look into the key areas of Fulham’s tactics, as well as provide an analysis of key members of the squad with a view of potential future signings.

They followed up their 22/23 Championship title-winning season by simply outscoring their opponents rather than producing strong defensive performances — scoring 55 goals but conceding 53.

The Cottagers did well to concede 55 goals, really, considering their xG against was far higher. Some credit must go to goalkeeper Bernd Leno for keeping that conceded total down to 55. There wasn’t much difference in the xG they had to defend from either flank, and they also showed similar rates of blocking attacks down both sides.

As you can see, in terms of non-penalty goals (and own goals), Fulham outperformed their xG last season, scoring 47 goals non-penalty goals from an xG of 44.46.

Of their 55 goals, Mitrović bagged 14, making him the club’s top scorer in 22/23. Looking at their xG on a broader scope than just one player, we can see that Fulham attempted a few shots from long range and even wide areas — while they would ideally want to trim down the number of long shots, wide efforts come as no surprise as a lot of their attacking play comes from wide areas.

Again, they would want to find a more productive end to an attack than a shot from an unlikely distance and angle.

To aid their bid to survive last season, they spent over £60m over both transfer windows, and their recruitment produced fantastic results. From experienced arrivals like Willian to younger talents approaching their prime years, like Issa Diop and João Palhinha, for example, the recruitment & talent ID team at Craven Cottage can be proud of their efforts last season… and they need to replicate such work again this season. Aleksandar Mitrović is currently involved in a transfer saga, with the forward reportedly trying to force a move to the Saudi league.

We touched on their activity in the transfer window last season, and they have finally started to be active in the window this year in terms of bringing players in. This is a needed action to improve their squad in terms of depth, but where? Well, they have completed two transfers at the time of writing: Ajax defender Calvin Bassey joins to strengthen Fulham’s defensive ranks, while forward Raul Jimenez has also arrived at Craven Cottage, in a £5.5m deal from Wolves. Currently, both of the aforementioned key players (Mitrović and Palhinha) are still at Fulham, so let’s imagine they’ll be Fulham players for the 23/24 season — or at least until January; where could they improve?

Well, depth in midfield can go a long way in any tier of football, and reports have been circulating for a few weeks now that the London club have Manchester United midfielder Fred on their radar. The Brazilian has been left out of United’s pre-season tour in the USA, with Saudi clubs and Galatasaray showing interest in him.

Yes, Fred is a defensive midfielder by trade, just like current Fulham man Palhinha, but we don’t see the United player as a direct replacement but as another addition to the Fulham ranks. Firstly, there is his lack of similarity to Palhinha, which sits at just 68%, according to xGold.

There are plenty of midfielders around Europe who are a more suitable direct replacement for Palhinha. Secondly, Fred comes with the element of positional versatility as he can play various midfield roles, including an attacking midfield role.

He would be a good fit for Fulham, however. Compared to other left-sided defensive midfielders from the 22/23 Premier League, Fred excelled in several areas, from dangerous passes to engaging in defensive duels. He also posted high percentile rankings for all attacking metrics in the visual above, showing a real tendency to get involved with attacks in the final third and penalty area.

Fulham deployed a 4-2-3-1 most of the time last season, so with two defensive midfielders and one attacking midfielder, Fred would have the ability to contribute regularly — he had limited game time last season for United but still played in varying midfield roles. As we said, he could be a savvy signing for Fulham if they are willing to meet the £20m price tag set by United — and there is the matter of his wages.

Looking at how Fulham are likely to play in possession, as we touched upon earlier, a lot of their attacking play is focused on wide play and getting crosses into the box. In fact, last season, they ranked third in number of crosses into the box — only Liverpool and Manchester City attempted more crosses. You can understand why when they had such a physical threat in Mitrović lurking inside the box.

The visual above shows us Fulham’s crossing tendencies, and as you can see, a lot is going on. The data tells us that the right flank was a more frequent crossing zone than the left, and the right flank was also more successful.

The marks for crossing destinations also tell us that they found success in delivering balls into dangerous areas.

Generally, in football, most goals from crosses are scored with a header, and Fulham’s total of 16 headed goals last term is more proof that they are efficient in wing play. In fact, that total was the second highest in the league, second only to Tottenham Hotspur, who scored 17.

Of those 16, Mitrović, to no surprise, was Fulham’s highest scorer for headers with six — the third-highest last season, beaten only by Harry Kane and Erling Haaland.

Here, we can begin to look at how Fulham get into dangerous areas on the flanks. They like to play with intensity and pace but are fearless in slowing possession down if the majority of the opposition is behind the ball.

The image above shows an example of left-back Antonee Robinson showing attacking intent as he drives forward quickly after receiving the ball. His first touch suggested that he would pass to Willian, who was already making his run out wide; Robinson used the opponent’s shape and positioning to his advantage, surging well into the opposition’s half with the ball.

Robinson continued his run until he neared the penalty box — this was not a one-off action from the full-back. He has demonstrated, on multiple occasions, his attacking ability and intent. With good timing, he released the ball to the supporting Willian, and the former Chelsea winger took the ball close to the byline before lofting a cross to the back post, to be met by the arriving Harry Wilson. This move resulted in Wilson scoring.

Aside from Fulham’s focus on attacking via the flanks, this example has a few tactical details worth noting. The first is using Mitrović in a deeper area to act as a bridge in shifting the ball in the desired direction — his strength is critical in keeping the ball away from the opponent. His quick instinct to send the ball over to the opposite flank from where the ball came suggests that this is all part of Silva’s tactical plan. The Serbian shows excellent composure, tactical understanding in this moment, and great passing as he swings his left foot at the bouncing ball out towards his left back.

Robinson arrives to receive the ball in a slightly more central area than where you would expect an attacking full-back to — this is also a regular feature of Silva’s tactics: the full-backs seem to switch between underlapping and overlapping support. He shows no hesitation in playing the ball out wide to Willian. The quickness of Robinson’s action allows Fulham to maintain the intensity and pressure in their attack, and Willian goes on to drive forward toward the box in typical fashion.

As you may imagine, Fulham, a team deadly from wide areas, are also effective from corners. The visual above shows us the Cottagers’ assists & shot assists, and as you can see, they were a threat from wide areas as we covered, but also from corners — they ranked fifth in the league for goals from corners with nine goals from those set pieces, again highlighting their aerial threat in attack.

As mentioned in the intro, Fulham’s defensive record last season was something of an undesirable nature. While not shocking, it essentially stood between them and a finish higher than 10th, so if they want to reach the next level this coming season, they’ll need to shore up at the back.

Tactically, their approach is okay, but they could use some work In executing the smaller details. For instance, one of the things contributing to them shipping 55 goals was their ability in aerial duels, which is surprising given how dangerous they are in attack from crosses and set pieces.

Last season, Fulham held the lowest success rate aerial duel success rate. Surely improving on this would help them be stronger in midfield and the defensive third. But how do they generally set up off the ball?

We’ve compared Fulham’s defensive territory to Liverpool’s as the Reds are known for their high pressing and (at times) high defensive line, so they act merely as a benchmark in this example to give some context to Fulham’s visual.

In terms of off-the-ball engagement, their line is somewhat lower than Liverpool’s, and you will see this in their play — you rarely see Fulham pressing high that far up the pitch. They tend to let the opponent come out before facing the Cottager’s mid-block.

While not so low that it can be labelled extremely defensive, their defensive line is lower than the average high-pressing team — a package deal that comes with their mid-block approach.

This example highlights what we just spoke about concerning Fulham’s approach out of possession. Of course, they have moments of pressing with more intensity. Still, allowing the opponents to step out from their defensive third but limiting the options to play through the midfield third, Fulham’s engine room is vital and requires mental and physical stamina.

You won’t see Mitrović pressing much, but this is a tactical decision to tie in with their mid-block (although this move does suit the Serbian forward’s style). Once the opponent starts to push forward, Fulham’s midfield unit will become more compact, blocking central access.

Fulham may sometimes be more active than this example, but it highlights the fundamentals of their mid-block. Firstly, the deepest point of the midfield unit has little distance between the defensive unit, which itself is not sat deep — a basic but important factor of any mid-block setup.

The shape of the midfield itself is compact, leaving minimal opportunity to be penetrated, and Mitrović’s deeper presence essentially adds an extra man to the midfield unit. As you can see in the example above, this compact approach allows the opposition to shift the ball out to their full-backs and attack the flanks.

While it may look like an easy route in a still shot, if the ball in the example above were to be played down either yellow passing line, Fulham’s midfield unit would shift across in a pendulum-like motion, with the nearest winger stepping out to apply pressure to the opposition full-back.

The data suggests that Fulham can be effective in a high press if they execute it occasionally, but there is a reason they hold off from an intense approach off the ball — their mid-block.

If their front line pressed high on the opposition’s back line, they would leave space behind them to play through, no longer making it a mid-block. While they do win some balls in the final third, most of their possession regain occurs in the midfield unit, thanks to their mid-block.

In a nice segue to the transitions analysis, we can see how effective Fulham are when retrieving possession after losing it. They made an impressive 608 counterpressing recoveries last season: compare that to the pressing standard in Liverpool, who made 683. That is a very strong number from Silva’s side. It shows good aggression from the midfield unit, tactical understanding and the ability to execute Silva’s tactical instructions.

As the map above hinted at, Fulham’s reaction to winning the ball back often depends on a few environmental circumstances — where they win the ball and where the opposition is/how they are positioned are the main points.

Fulham will look to strike if they regain the ball back in (or just outside of) the final third region showing good ability to unleash a shot in these times. Still, they will also look to attack if a transition occurs in wide areas, especially if dangerous space is ahead of them.

We see that in this example against Leeds. Fulham have a numerical advantage in a wide area as they win the ball back on the edge of their own defensive third, but with a vast open space ahead of them, they smell blood and launch a counterattack.

Despite the wide man Harry Wilson making his run early, the first pass actually goes inside — a smart move as it draws the opposition’s attention inside, allowing Wilson to gain yards ahead while not being marked.

On this occasion, despite the counterattack being prepared well and holding good promise, Fulham could not damage Leeds directly from it, although they did win a free kick 10-20 yards inside the opponent’s half.

In many situations, though, where Fulham win the ball in deeper areas — mostly in central areas, expect them to simply hold the ball, often waiting for the full-backs to get into a better supporting position so they can then launch an attack as they usually would.

Their approach to the opposite type of transition, again, depends on its location. If one occurs in the attacking third, they will use their presence to push the opposition in a specific direction or into a particular action.

In the image above, the pass out to the full-back is not a viable option for opponents Southampton due to Willian’s close presence, and barring a clever blind pass into the unmarked midfielder, Fulham have blocked Southampton’s route out of defence amid the transition.

On this occasion, their opponents went back to their keeper, who sent the ball long — Fulham regained possession before winning a free kick just inside the Saints’ half.

When a team overachieves, it is only natural for the richer, “bigger” clubs to start sniffing around key players, and João Palhinha currently fits in that category. The defensive midfielder was impressive for Marco Silva’s side last season after his £17.3m move from Sporting Lisbon in July 2022.

In recent weeks, West Ham and Liverpool have been linked with a move for the midfielder, so Fulham could be in the market for a replacement soon. We have identified three realistic potential replacements using TFA’s player similarity tool.

Aníbal Moreno — Racing Club — 85% similarity

24-year-old Moreno, who currently plies his trade in Argentina’s top flight for Racing Club, could be an ideal replacement, which might not demand an astronomical fee. His current market value is listed at £6.9m, although his club may ask for a higher fee than that from a Premier League club.

His numbers are promising — he engages well in defensive duels; often successful too, although he doesn’t seem to possess the same aerial reliability as Palhinha. In terms of his performance on the ball, he gets involved to a reasonable degree — ranking high in his league in areas like progressive passes and passes per 90. He seems to offer more of an attacking input than his potential predecessor in Palhinha.

Sam Field — QPR — 84% similarity

Looking closer to home than South America, Queens Park Rangers midfielder Sam Field posted substantial numbers in the Championship last season. The 25-year-old’s percentile rankings offer something similar to Palhinha in terms of a lower attacking contribution in terms of dribbling and passing. However, he does rank well for touches in the opposition penalty area.

According to his percentile rankings, Field is reliable regarding aerial and defensive duels, while also having a good ranking for positioning, meaning he is effective regarding things like interceptions. His current market value is £3m — but expect that fee to at least double if Fulham (or another Premier League club) do register interest in the player.

Ibrahim Sangaré — PSV — 81% similarity

The Eredivisie has seen several big transfers pass through its doors in recent years. For example, the likes of Frenkie de Jong have made a name for themselves in Holland before moving to one of the “bigger” leagues.

One player who caught the eye last season was PSV midfielder Ibrahim Sangaré, who has a market value of £30.3m, meaning he would be a more expensive option for the Cottagers. He doesn’t offer a high percentile ranking for aerial duels, but his contribution is far from poor in that area — the same can be said of his success in defensive duels.

His percentiles for in-possession metrics paint the picture of a well-rounded player who is more than capable of being an important player on and off the ball.

Rumour has it that Fulham’s talismanic striker is on his way to Saudi, but there is always the chance that the deal doesn’t go through, just look at Fabinho’s move away from Liverpool falling apart because his pet dog is illegal in Saudi!

Certainly, Mitrović is a key figure in Fulham’s plans and has been for several seasons now. Physical strength is a vital element of his game, and defenders have a tough time defending against him. Earlier, we spoke of his superiority in scoring headed goals, and his percentile rankings surrounding aerial duels are further evidence of his aerial ability.

Suppose Fulham’s sudden transfer activity sees them increase their creativity in midfield. In that case, Mitrović may succeed in bettering last year’s goal tally of 14, and his goal contribution rate would increase. He is the perfect fit for Fulham’s wide attacking approach that sees them delivering a lot of crosses, and his role doesn’t require much dribbling from him, as his percentile rank suggests.

In what could be a masterstroke signing, Fulham have signed defender Calvin Bassey from Ajax. You may remember his time on loan at Scottish club Rangers, and he has improved vastly since then. The 23-year-old has arrived at Craven Cottage for a reported fee of £18.2m, and his stats make for promising reading.

Not only does he have high percentile rankings for passes per 90 and dribbles per 90, indicating that he is confident on the ball, but he is also very effective and reliable in defensive duels. However, his percentile ranking for aerial duels success may be a cause for concern, but whether or not that hampers Fulham’s progress remains to be seen.

Overall, this could be a clever signing for Fulham and could play an essential part in improving their defensive performance.

10th will be another good season for Fulham and will continue to grow the reputation of Marco Silva. They’ll hope to push on a bit from last season but, realistically, nobody is going to grumble with that outcome.

Jack Manship, a Football Manager veteran. Currently working as a first-team regional scout for Doncaster Rovers.